Mexico casts ballots in a race that could produce the nation's first female president.

 

Mexico casts ballots in a race that could produce the nation's first female president.

MEXICO CITY — On Sunday, Mexicans will likely elect the country's first female president, choosing between a former academic committed to continuing the current leader's populist policies and an ex-senator and tech entrepreneur who promises to intensify efforts against deadly drug cartels.

Nearly 100 million people are registered to vote in this election, which will replace outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Voters will also elect governors in nine of the country’s 32 states, and choose candidates for both houses of Congress, thousands of mayoral positions, and other local posts. These elections, marked by violence, are the largest in the nation’s history.

This election is widely viewed as a referendum on López Obrador, a populist who has expanded social programs but failed to significantly reduce cartel violence in Mexico. His Morena party currently controls 23 of the 32 governorships and holds a simple majority in both houses of Congress. The Mexican constitution prohibits presidential reelection.

Early turnout appeared high in the capital, with long lines of voters under clear skies.

Morena aims to secure a two-thirds majority in Congress to amend the constitution and eliminate what it calls inefficient and wasteful oversight agencies. The opposition, running in a loose coalition, argues that such a change would threaten Mexico's democratic institutions.

Both leading presidential candidates are women, which means Mexico will have its first female president. A third candidate from a smaller party, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, is trailing significantly.

Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, running with the Morena party, leads in the race and has pledged to continue all of López Obrador’s policies, including a universal pension for the elderly and a program that pays youths to apprentice.

Opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, whose father was Indigenous Otomi, rose from selling snacks on the street in her poor hometown to become a successful tech entrepreneur. Running with a coalition of major opposition parties, she left the Senate last year to criticize López Obrador’s “hugs not bullets” policy towards drug cartels and has pledged to take a tougher stance on crime.

The main issues for voters are persistent cartel violence and Mexico's middling economic performance.

In the neighborhood of San Andres Totoltepec, homemaker Stephania Navarrete watched electoral officials and media gather where frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum was set to vote. Despite doubts about López Obrador and his party, she plans to vote for Sheinbaum.

“Having a woman president, for me as a Mexican woman, will break the limitations placed on us in certain professions,” she said. While she supports Sheinbaum’s social programs, her primary concern is the increase in cartel violence. “Security is the major challenge. Crime levels were supposed to decrease, but they’ve increased instead. While I don’t completely blame the president, it is partly his responsibility."

Julio García, a 34-year-old office worker in Mexico City's San Rafael neighborhood, is voting for the opposition. “I’ve been robbed at gunpoint twice. We need a change in direction and leadership,” he said, noting the early high turnout in his neighborhood.

In Iztapalapa, Mexico City’s largest borough, 76-year-old Angelina Jiménez came to vote "to end this inept government that says we’re doing well while so many are dead." Concerned by the violence plaguing Mexico, she plans to vote for Gálvez, who has vowed to confront the cartels. “(López Obrador) says we’re better, but it’s not true. We’re worse."

López Obrador claims to have reduced historically high homicide rates by 20% since taking office in December 2018, but this is contested, with the real rate appearing to have declined by only about 4% over six years.

About 675,000 Mexicans living abroad are registered to vote, though traditionally only a small percentage have participated. Voting is not mandatory in Mexico, and turnout has hovered around 60% in recent elections, similar to recent U.S. presidential elections. However, the 2020 U.S. election saw a turnout of 67%, its highest in decades.

Like the upcoming November rematch between Biden and Trump in the U.S., Sunday’s election highlights deep divisions in Mexico over the country’s direction, including security strategy and economic growth.

Beyond the control of Congress, the race for Mexico City’s top post, considered equivalent to a governorship, is also significant. Sheinbaum is the latest in a line of Mexico City mayors, including López Obrador, who have run for president. Governorships in populous states such as Veracruz and Jalisco are also attracting attention.

Polls opened at 8 a.m. and will close at 6 p.m. (0000 GMT Monday) in most of the country. The first preliminary results are expected by 9 p.m. (0300 GMT Monday) after the last polls in different time zones close.