This week Boeing made a public splash by
debuting a new blue spacesuit for astronauts to wear aboard its Starliner
spacecraft. What the company did not dwell on as it rolled out “Boeing Blue,”
however, was when the lighter, more modern-looking flight suits might be put
into action with crewed flights into orbit.
That is because much work remains to
integrate all of Starliner’s various systems, including qualifying them for
flight, ensuring their compatibility, and writing and testing software that
will make for smooth flying. And Boeing is not alone; its “commercial crew”
competitor SpaceX also faces similar technical hurdles with the Dragon V2
spacecraft and the Falcon 9 rocket that will launch it into space.
Boeing has set a “no earlier than” date
for its first crewed test flight of August 2018, and SpaceX has targeted
May 2018. But those dates seem optimistic. Ars spoke to a handful of sources
familiar with the commercial crew program this week, and all expressed
pessimism about the public timelines the companies have for reaching the launch
pad. According to this unofficial analysis, even a single crewed test flight in
2018 by either company now appears unlikely, as teams from both Boeing and
SpaceX continue to work through significant technical issues.
---------------------------------------Space
really is hard--------------------------------------
There is an old cliché in the aerospace
industry that is nonetheless entirely truespace is hard. Only Russia, the
United States, and more recently China have ever launched humans into orbit.
Now two private companies, funded by NASA, are seeking to do the same. That no
one else has yet done this speaks to the challenge.
In the early part of this decade, a skeptical
Congress hindered the commercial crew program by under-funding it, which caused
initial delays from 2015 to 2017. Last year, for the first time, Congress more
or less provided every penny NASA requested for its contracts with Boeing and
SpaceX. In September, NASA Inspector General Paul Martin reported that delays
beyond 2017 were largely due to technical issues. NASA, too, bore some of the
blame for its lumbering evaluation and review processes as Boeing and SpaceX
developed their spacecraft, Martin said.
NASA, of course, desperately wants the
private companies to succeed. Since the Space Shuttle’s retirement in 2011, the
space agency has relied on Russia and its aging Soyuz family of rockets and
spacecraft to transport its astronauts to the International Space Station. And
in the meantime, Congress has groused about paying an increasingly steep
price for Soyuz “seats.”
NASA currently has contracts with Russia
through 2018 to get its astronauts to the station. However, a delay of test
flights into 2019 would necessarily push the first “operational” commercial
crew flights into spring or summer of 2019 at a minimum. So, earlier this
month, NASA revealed a clever plan that would allow it to procure
additional Soyuz seats for 2019 while also reducing the threat of political
blowback.
Officials within the ISS program, based in
Houston, helped broker a deal for Boeing to acquire the “rights” to sell three
Soyuz seats in 2019. Boeing received these rights from Russia's Energia as
compensation for the settlement of a lawsuit involving the Sea Launch joint
venture. In essence, then, when NASA tells the White House and Congress it
needs to buy additional seats for 2019 due to commercial crew delays, it will
be asking for money to buy them from Boeing an American company rather than
Russia.
--------------------------------------Crew assignments-----------------------------------------
NASA has therefore bought some more time for
its commercial crew partners. As we get deeper into 2017, there are some clues
that can help us track whether Boeing and SpaceX are making good progress.
Foremost is the actual assignment of crews to the first missions.
The space agency has previously designated
four veterans as its commercial crew astronauts—Bob Behnken, Sunita Williams,
Doug Hurley, and Eric Boe who have since been familiarizing themselves with
both new vehicles. These four astronauts are unlikely to be assigned to Boeing
or SpaceX until such time that crews are formally announced, not only for the
initial two-person test flights, but also for the subsequent operational
flights. So there would potentially be two two-person crews named (one for each
Boeing and SpaceX), as well as two larger crews, which would include astronauts
flying to the station for a regular, multi-month increment.
The timing of these announcements is
critical, as they would have to occur at least 18 months before the operational
flights begin. This would allow the astronauts flying to the station for
long-duration missions time to prepare for all their work aboard the ISS. Ars
understands the naming of these crews won’t occur before at least June or July
of this year—probably later.
--------------------------------------Rocket
concerns-------------------------------------------
Both companies are having trouble with not
only their spacecraft, but their rockets as well. The Starliner will launch on
the highly reliable Atlas V rocket, but wind-tunnel tests have shown some
problems with aeroacoustic issues when the Starliner is stacked atop the Atlas
V during launch. Boeing may need to perform additional tests this year to
demonstrate that it has moved beyond these issues.
For SpaceX, it will be critical to watch the
company’s development of its Falcon 9 rocket. With two failures in 18 months,
the company needs to prove to NASA that its booster is safe. The issue is
complicated by the fact that SpaceX continues to work toward a “final” version
of its Falcon 9 rocket Block 5 which founder and Chief Executive Elon Musk
said will fly by the end of this year.
The Block 5 variant of the Falcon 9
is being designed for optimal safety and easier return for potential reuse. It
will also be the variant upon which the crewed Dragon spacecraft ultimately
flies. NASA will want to see multiple flights of
this Block 5 version before it allows astronauts on top of it. Among those
flights will be an uncrewed test flight of the Dragon V2 spacecraft, which will
likely dock with the space station. As part of its milestones for Dragon V2,
SpaceX nominally plans to conduct this uncrewed test flight in late 2017.
However, because it now seems unlikely that
the Block 5 version of the Falcon 9 will make its maiden flight before late
this year, the Dragon V2 test flight will almost certainly slip into 2018. How
much it is delayed into 2018 should provide some clues as to how overly
optimistic the rest of SpaceX’s commercial crew targets remain.
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