BANGKOK : (WN)-A look at recent developments in
the South China Sea, where China is pitted against smaller neighbors in
multiple disputes over islands, coral reefs and lagoons in waters crucial for
global commerce and rich in fish and potential oil and gas reserves:
Dotted with small islands, reefs and
shoals, the South China Sea is a crucial shipping route and home a messy
territorial dispute that pits multiple countries against one another. Tensions
in the contest waters have ratcheted up since 2014 as China has turned sandbars
into islands, equipping them with airfields, ports and weapons systems and
warned US warships and aircraft to stay away from them.
Adding fuel to this heady mix, the Trump
administration looks set to take a much more confrontational stance toward Beijing
than its predecessor setting the stage for a potential showdown. China bases
its claims on the "nine-dash line" its claimed territorial waters
that extend hundreds of miles to the south and east of its island province of
Hainan, abut its neighbors' claims and, in some cases, encroach upon them.
The Paracel Islands (Xisha to Beijing) have
been controlled by China since 1974, but they are also claimed by Vietnam and
Taiwan. Tensions flared in 2014 when China installed exploratory oil rigs in
the vicinity. The situation is more complicated in the Spratlys, which Beijing
calls the Nansha islands.
The archipelago consists of 100 smalls
islands and reefs of which 45 are occupied by China, Malaysia, Vietnam or the
Philippines. All of the islands are claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam, while
some of them (or nearby waters) are claimed by the Philippines, Malaysia and
Brunei.
***What's
China been building?***
In early 2014, China quietly began massive
dredging operations centering on the seven reefs it controls in the Spratly
Islands -- Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, Cuarteron Reef, Gaven
Reef and Hughes Reef. According to the US, China has reclaimed more than 3,000
acres since the beginning of 2014.
On his 2015 trip to Washington, Chinese
President Xi Jinping said China wouldn't militarize the islands, but a December
report from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said China had
installed comprehensive weapons systems on seven reefs that include
anti-aircraft guns. Some have called the islands China's "unsinkable
aircraft carriers."
Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan
have also reclaimed land in the South China Sea, but their land grab the US
says approximately 100 acres over 45 years is dwarfed by China's massive,
recent buildup.
***What's
the US view?***
It could be changing. The US has traditionally taken no position on
the territorial disputes in the South China Sea but has repeatedly asserted its
right to freedom of navigation in the disputed waters, with the US military
flying and sailing its assets close to the islands China controls.
Tillerson and Trump have not minced their
words on the issue, suggesting that the State Department could take a more
muscular approach. "Building islands and then putting military assets on
those islands is akin to Russia's taking of Crimea. Its taking of territory
that others lay claim to," Tillerson said in his confirmation hearing.
"We're going to have to send China a
clear signal that first, the island-building stops, and second, your access to
those islands also not going to be allowed." Blocking Chinese naval
vessels from accessing South China Sea reefs would almost certainly trigger a
US-China clash, says Ashley Townshend, a research fellow at the United States
Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
"More to the point: as many of the reefs
are effectively a part of international waters, preventing Chinese ships from
sailing to or near them would undermine the very freedom of navigation rules
that the US has been trying to uphold," he adds.
***What
could China do?***
As China stretches its muscles as a growing
superpower, the South China Sea, rich in oil and gas reserves, has become a
testing ground for whether the country will rise as part of the existing
international order or outside it. China says both the Paracels and the
Spratlys are an "integral part" of its territory, offering up maps
that date back to the early 20th century.
It has repeatedly defended its right to build
both civil and defensive facilities on the islands it controls. In December, a
Chinese warship unlawfully seized an underwater drone from a US oceanographic
vessel.
One new strategy could be to declare an air
defense zone in the South China Sea, which would require all aircraft to file
flight plans even if they don't enter Chinese airspace. Beijing has also
ignored a landmark ruling last year by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in
The Hague, which said there was no legal basis for China's maritime claims.
Even though they now have international law
on their side, other claimants have done little to challenge Beijing. The
Philippines, which originally brought the case, has pivoted towards Beijing
under President Rodrigo Duterte.
Beijing's response to Tillerson and Trump's
comments to date has been fairly muted, but some analysts think Beijing could
soon test the new US commander in chief.
0 Comments